*Potential for another RBA hiking cycle >4%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye Aug 6, 2022 22pc and back in 2020 - the issue with Ukraine is there is very limited data on it as a country statistically because it was only created in the early 1990s. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. @cjoye I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. “Pretty clear RBA has been spooked by house price collapse, which is only going to get worse”christopher joye on Twitter. There was only one way to go. “First housing bear in my cross-hairs: UBS concedes yesterday, "Looking fwd, we had expected home prices could drop 10%, but it could be smaller now. Maybe u can get annoyed that the advertisers allowed this ad? But Matt Damon isn't a financial expert, how is he gonna predict what happens in mkts in 2022, lol. 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. You actually charge people a fee for that performance?”“@KirilRuvinsky @cjoye People are away in Sydney, this Aussie day turned into a long weekend, my wife works in circular quay and there were 5 people on her floor at work! People are still spending and it appears that less people under 35 have a mortgage these days, rising unemployment is the only key”Imaging if mums&dads can directly access to 6. 04 May 2023 06:47:40Log in. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. ”“With an inflation-targeting central bank, cash is actually one of your best inflation hedges”See new Tweets. christopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower of cost of capital than normal debt instruments without an ESG label. Retweets. In this conversation. The latest tweets from @cjoye christopher joye. 7%. When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. Interesting. Huobi announced $18. 7%. In this conversation. Team Talk: Cowboys 2023 overview, best 17, squad update. Funny thing is many keep saying it hasn't crashed yet. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Bank of M&D or other exogenous injections can only go so far. 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. Quote Tweet. The wage costs for businesses producing products is far too high and can only be addressed by greater productivity, which means fewer workers. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Ave wage vs ave savings vs ave mortgage debt does not compute in my mind-who can afford a $600k mortgage at 7% without it destroying monthly income?”“@cjoye See through the noise with China - they are in population decline as Poor Japan v2. …”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye @ALeighMP @Charlton_AB @DanielMulinoMP @AlboMP @JEChalmers Genuine question/thought. au “GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. This will be record housing crash, 100% triggered by rate hikes -. They all have movies on Netflix, and Netflix is down 80%. Sign upLog in. "We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. @cjoye RBA speech just published: almost 30% of Aussie borrowers will suffer a more than 40% increase in their mortgage repayments if the RBA lifts the cash rate by 300 basis points, though concludes everything will be ok in that event. Found. Log in. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. LNP for all its 'hawkishness' over China refused to develop onshore manufacturing for fear of unions. @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. Sign up Day of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. . Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. Likes. Log inAnother story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. Sign upIn this conversation. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Tech party is over as Canva and Atlassian get tough, and perks dry up“Does any seriously believe house prices will not fall after the RBA cutting the cash rate from 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…”@cjoye. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of underlying inflation based on a truncated monthly CPI. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. . 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Some areas down -25. Stock up 18%. 1. Jerome Nugent-Smith. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1KWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Acquire everything! It’s a bull market! Equities are cheap! The buy-the-dip-reflex will prevail! Central banks will slash rates and lift their inflation targets!We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersAussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data fromWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Replying to. “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. I believe this includes offset accounts. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. Replying to . 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye. @cjoye. May 2. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. “Super strong US employment data will embolden Fed to push to 5. . Sign upIn this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. 6pc. Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. Investors want little to do with a sector heading for a big dose of reality. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSign up. However, the. “The great regime change: growth and cheap money are dead of risky assets ‘living in a parallel universe’ - A recession may be precisely the jolt lackadaisical Millennials require to lift their game. Given the number of markets that have had this set up and tanked. This will. Likes. 0%), Melbourne (-7. ·. Our globally unique War Lab put 74% probability on military conflict between China/Taiwan and a 45% chance of US-China conflict erupting over next decade based on data up to 2020. Especially as pandemic funding measures end”House prices to get whacked by rates again: If the cash rate does indeed hit 4. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22 Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness In this conversation. . “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The quarterly pace of decline accelerated to. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2 days ago. @cjoye yep, thats the point. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Aug 16. “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. States need fiscal revolution to avoid debt bomb - our analysis on NSW and Victoria. IR here are… Show more . what you choose? We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 18 Jul 2023 02:09:39. christopher joye on Twitter. And homes are still priced above Covid levels. Both of which disproportionately affect the bottom 50% of households. Like. 1. they all roll over the same. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye It seems a bit silly to me that an actor, doing an advert, with a script, on the television, should suddenly become a financial commentator on cryptocurrencies. 76% from 0. 1 – weakest reading since the depths of the early-1990s recession, Hassan said. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. . Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. 2m are customer assets. com. 2 days ago. According to your own chart the annualized figure for Sydney is approx 11-12%. 2%. ConversationIn this conversation. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. Australian money is rushing out of the crypto exchange, and customers are willing to accept a big haircut to cash out their holdings. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 85% to 4. . 9. com. “@cjoye Sir. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. Sign upLog in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter. Strong academic credentials, but limited real world experience. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. Sign upNSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey today reveals that Perrottet/Kean had planned to burden NSW taxpayers with another $25bn of debt to allow their investment arm, TCorp, to punt this money on stocks. Replying to . 5%, the…. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ALT. There were good re“@Sporticus13 @cjoye @TheKouk I was wondering the other day how much of Wayne Swan’s unfulfilled budget surplus was the result of Koukie’s crystal ball. christopher joye on Twitter: "A property I heard about was. ConversationSee new Tweets. Sign upDay of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 50% in 2019 to 0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Captain Slapstick AC AO AM OAM AK @CaptSlapstick · 6h. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983 - MacroBusiness. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). Retweets. Replying to. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye plenty of illiquidity in the big super funds non-listed assets. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. CoreLogic: Australian home values officially record the largest decline on record would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye @PodcastFear. @cjoye. 6 billion Snowy Hydro…We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. Aussie housing collapse spreads as Brisbane joins the Sydney and Melbourne crash bit. The Australian Financial. christopher [email protected] @DrCameronMurray: Has anyone pulled together a list of all the wrong predictions about the housing market from mid-2020? If I recall, predictions of 30% price falls were common. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Prepare for equities and property pain - my analysis. In this conversation. ALT. “@cjoye @PeteWargent Both this and Labor shared equity policy are attempts to shore up supporter bases/buy votes. Try and think of the whole story not the macro people want you to hear and fear”In this conversation. 6% for one year but if taken from the peak in Sept 21 its -30% plus. Log in. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sydney prices have fallen by 11. Last Friday was a normal day for us: we did about $450m of trades, and I actively directed ~$300m of them. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. The stunning incident occurred in the waters off Werri Beach in New South Wales on Sunday and was captured on video. Australia experiences worst house price falls in 42 years, with more to come. commodities are a grand idea #BTC“Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB up. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. 6%mom) prices led the increase. @cjoye. . This is 70s. “@cjoye Japan took over 10 years from peak to 'bottom' with a similar size bubble. 9:26 PM · Aug 15, 2022 · Twitter Web App. christopher joye. Even with yields down. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. OAKVILLE, ON — September 1, 2022 — Today marks the start of a new chapter for JOY RADIO (CJYE) as it unveils not only a new look, but a new feel to their. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of…” Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. com. Aug 16. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. A 30year investment for most. Sydney is off 10. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. . This marks a turning point in your powers. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Aussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data from We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%, the Bank of Canada at 4. In this conversation. 1% in 2020 drove Aussie houses prices 37% higher. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 4% this time last yr. But with a referendum and election coming in the next 12 months, in addition to a $19b surplus. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. Sign up“@cjoye People keep in mind the huge upswing the housing market had pre covid. Quote Tweet. “@cjoye Watched The Big Short again last night - I fear the can kicking is going to end soon and we will have our very own subprime moment. Sign upLog in. While all costs (interest, rates, land tax, utility, body corp, maintenance) are against investors, 2m deposit gives u 100k effortless money. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersThe data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. It would not suprise me if the government introduces 'targeted support' which ends up pumping the market for a…”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. In this conversation. Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3. In this conversation. . Sydney (+1. Just think your narrow focus on interest rates as the main driver of house prices and that prices will fall 30% is consistent with many of you other views. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. There was only one way to go. See new Tweets. @cjoye. “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. macrobusiness. “ANZ's David Plank and Jack Chambers have today updated their RBA QE3 forecast to a potential program that could be as large as $189 billion, bringing them in line with Westpac's Bill Evans who is projecting a $150bn program for QE3 @Johnkehoe23 @ANZ_Newsroom @WestpacMacro”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Forecast looks good. christopher joye. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. “Good morning!” In this conversation. new Tweets. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. Master Your Unstoppable Mindset. Considering the RBA's housing price model predicts some pretty major price falls if rates rise 1%, it would be interesting to see how falling real wages may potentially exacerbate that. 0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes. christopher joye on Twitter: "Credit Suisse trying to squeeze. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. 1:24 AM · Jul 9, 2023 · 10. @cjoye. We await policy details to review our outlook". We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . The bears are gonna start running for the hills when they see wolverine chasing em”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign up“@mitch_dol @cjoye @TomInvesting This is the Jan REINZ HPI Index developed with our RBNZ. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. It's very unstable at the street level. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1%. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. ly/3pmX9Dk. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye · Aug 5. )”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. So how does this effect them? I would have thought ppl who regularly buy/sell homes or were looking to cash out for retirement would be more affected?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. I suspect the increased earnings (and potentially profit) of the big players in ASX 200 might offset increases in discount rates. Log in. 3. au. First miss on EPS since IPO, I think. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Show more". “Aussie house price crash about to pass through all-time record of an 11% peak-to-trough loss. @Dante57112893. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in. 2m are customer assets. Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. These people need equity Plenty of people get paid goid money a d know very little of what they do The lesson is the herd mentality is alive and well On the way uo! All the way down Probability market crash epic proportions Going to be like the car market but even more acute We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. christopher joye on Twitter. 04 Jun 2023 22:01:37We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. See new Tweets Nothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed ever Massive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. First time I've properly suited up in a long while. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. “No strong view on NSW election other than that NSW Labor Treasurer Daniel Mookhey is the smartest and hardest working politician I have ever dealt with in my life @dmookheyMLC @ALeighMP” Well you called it when you said we could likely have another series of rate hikes after the pause @cjoye. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. 4% followed by Brisbane (-8. 5%. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle… @cjoye A tiny, single day drop in Aussie house prices evidenced in the CoreLogic daily data---is it pure noise or something more substantive as tighter policy grips? corelogic. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. @cjoye. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ChandAshok @cjoye Totally agree re government mistakes but struggle to understand why ‘independent organisations’ have the power to dial up the misery of Australians in the form of unemployment and increased costs of lending. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. 5% pa, or 2. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. A controversial article by Christopher Joye, an outspoken investment portfolio manager and columnist for the Australian Financial Review, has. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 7%; Brisb off 1. Find great real estate professionals on Zillow like cjoyeThere are 9 words found that match your query. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ↑ Joye, Christopher. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. Sitting on $6. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…” Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. then the printing starts again leading to further dilution of currency . 4% pa return. Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. Where did you get 20% from?”RBA governor Phil Lowe said today that for Aussie inflation to hit its 2-3% target, wages can only grow at circa 3. @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. “@KurtMickan @cjoye If the current conditions remain I would expect prices to fall. In this conversation. . 92. It would not shock me for people in 2034 to be asking "is this the year Australian property prices finally see gains?". We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. Drone operator Christopher Joye posted. 3.